Home » 2023-24 college football bowl games: Top confidence picks, pool predictions, computer simulation rankings

2023-24 college football bowl games: Top confidence picks, pool predictions, computer simulation rankings

USC quarterback Caleb Williams will not play in the Holiday Bowl against No. 15 Louisville, deciding to opt out of the Trojans’ game during the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule. The defending Heisman Trophy winner threw for more than 3,600 yards and scored 42 total touchdowns this year, making him a difficult player to replace. Louisville is a 7.5-point favorite in the 2023-24 college football bowl odds, so the Cardinals will be among the popular college football bowl confidence picks. Should you include Louisville in your 2023-24 college football bowl confidence strategy?

Other stars are opting out of bowl games as well, creating difficult decisions in college football bowl confidence pools. Proven college football bowl confidence advice can go a long way toward helping you finalize your college football bowl confidence rankings. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don’t miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on its top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine

Top college football bowl confidence predictions

One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens. While the Seminoles might still have some motivation to make a point following their College Football Playoff snub, it was not enough to keep star wide receiver Johnny Wilson on the field. He declared for the 2024 NFL Draft following the announcement from the College Football Playoff selection committee, leaving Florida State without another one of its stars.

The Seminoles are already playing without starting quarterback Jordan Travis, whose leg injury was a big part of the reason they were left out of the four-team field. Georgia has significantly more talent and depth than Florida State, so the absence of Wilson and Travis will only widen that gap. The Bulldogs are one of the heaviest favorites of bowl season, and they are also among the model’s most confident outright winners at almost an 80% win rate. 

Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. Kansas State was one of the top offensive teams in college football this season, ranked No. 10 in points per game (37.8). Senior quarterback Will Howard entered the transfer portal and will not play, but freshman quarterback Avery Johnson had 301 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions this season while rushing for 217 yards and six more scores. 

Sophomore running back DJ Giddens provides balance to the offense, rushing for 1,075 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. NC State does not have nearly enough offensive firepower to keep pace, averaging less than 27 points per game. SportsLine’s model expects the Wolfpack to come up short of their season average in this contest, which is one reason why Kansas State is winning in nearly 70% of simulations. See all of the model’s college football bowl confidence picks here.

How to make college football bowl confidence picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine

So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out. 

2023-24 college football bowl schedule

See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ET
New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ET
Cure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ET
LA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET
Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noon
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noon
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ET
Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ET
First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ET
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ET
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ET
Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ET
Sun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ET
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET
Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ET
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ET
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ET
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ET
Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ET
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 8

CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET