This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second Friday at the Miami Open is usually reserved for men’s semifinal play, but with rain pushing the schedule back, we will also have a women’s semifinal match in addition to the regularly scheduled pair of men’s semifinals. A surprise semifinalist in the women’s draw will look to tack on another big win, while a favorite on the men’s side will face a tough challenge from a player who has beaten him on a big stage before. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Jannik Sinner (+180) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Winning a set off Alcaraz has seemed like a nearly insurmountable challenge recently, so beating him in an entire match will be supremely difficult, but Sinner seems like the best candidate to do it. Sinner has been arguably the second-best player in the field throughout the sunshine double of Indian Wells and Miami. He was a point from going up a set before losing 7-6 (4), 6-3 to Alcaraz in the semifinals of Indian Wells, and Sinner has yet to drop more than four games in a set in this tournament. The 21-year-old Italian also knocked out Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year, and the 19-year-old Spaniard had to fend off a match point to get revenge at the US Open. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 3-2 overall and 3-0 on hard courts, but Sinner has been knocking on the door and might just get a breakthrough win here in what has already turned into the sport’s most exciting rivalry between players born after the 1990, let alone post-2000.
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Daniil Medvedev (-450) vs. Karen Khachanov
Medvedev leads the head-to-head between these Russian peers 3-1, with the most recent win coming in convincing fashion — 6-3, 6-3 — earlier this year in Adelaide. Khachanov has been a tough out this year, but he seems to have a bit of a ceiling to his game, as he had lost 23 consecutive matches against top-10 opponents before beating a less than fully fit Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the semifinals here. Unlike Tsitsipas, who has been limited by a shoulder injury, Medvedev’s firing on all cylinders. The world No. 5 has won 22 of his last 23 matches and has yet to drop a set in this tournament.
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Sorana Cirstea (+110) vs. Petra Kvitova
Cirstea’s coming off one of the best wins on the WTA Tour this season, as she handed Aryna Sabalenka her third loss of 2023 on Wednesday. That 6-4, 6-4 win was Cirstea’s fifth consecutive straight sets triumph en route to the semifinals, and this run comes on the heels of a quarterfinal result in Indian Wells, so the 32-year-old Romanian’s playing some of the best tennis of her career. She will have an edge in freshness over Kvitova, who played her quarterfinal Thursday, beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3 in the third to reach the semifinals for the first time in 13 tries at the Miami Open. Kvitova leads the head-to-head between these two veterans 6-4, but seven of those matches came in 2016 or earlier. The last three have all come since 2021, and Cirstea has won two of those, improving to 4-1 on hard courts against Kvitova.