This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open men’s singles championship match will be played Sunday. Jannik Sinner has ascended into the upper echelon of the men’s game, and he can cement his spot as a title contender at the biggest tournaments with his first Masters 1000 title. To do so, he’ll have to get through self-described hard-court specialist Daniil Medvedev, whose results on this surface over the past few years are right up there with Novak Djokovic’s as the best in the world. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
Miami Open Final Odds: Medvedev vs. Sinner
Daniil Medvedev (-110) vs. Jannik Sinner (-110)
The tale of the tape leans Medvedev’s way. Medvedev has won 23 of his last 24 matches, showcasing his immense hard court skills. He’s also 5-0 in his career against Sinner, including a 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 triumph in Rotterdam. All five meetings have come on hard courts, but interestingly, each of them was indoors. Medvedev’s going for his fith Masters 1000 title — all on hard courts — while Sinner’s in his second Masters 1000 final, both of which have come at this venue.
Sinner may be winless against Medvedev, but it’s also fair to say that the 21-year-old Italian is more confident with his game than he has ever been before. He’s riding high after beating Carlos Alcaraz 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals Friday. That win evened Sinner’s head-to-head with Alcaraz at 3-3, but it was his first hard-court victory over his Spanish rival and just Alcaraz’s second loss of 2023. Both Sinner and Medvedev faced Alcaraz in Indian Wells earlier this month, and while neither won a set, Sinner took nine games compared to Medvedev’s five.
The hard courts in Miami have been playing fast, and while both Sinner and Medvedev like these conditions, they play slightly more into Sinner’s hands. The Italian’s sheer power off the ground should allow him to blast through Medvedev’s combination of reach and speed in a way that most players fail to do, and the speedy courts should aid in that endeavor. Sinner’s transition game continues to improve as well, and while both of these guys are complete players, Medvedev may have to leave his comfort zone and take chances earlier in rallies lest he allow Sinner to keep the ball on a string and push him around.
Miami Open Prediction: Sinner def. Medvedev 6-4, 4-6, 7-6