What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Titans at Dolphins (-13.5, 46.5). Do you expect the Titans to keep this one close or do you see Miami’s explosive offense making this a runaway? How are you betting this game?
Fulghum: I fully expect Miami’s explosive offense to literally run away with this one. Dolphins -13.5 (-110) and Dolphins Team Total OVER 29.5 (-125) are two wagers I like. Miami has excelled this season when expected to handle inferior competition. They’re 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season with a +20.6 margin of victory and a very comfortable +11.7 cover margin. Translation: They hammer teams when they’re expected to. I see little resistance coming from the Titans defense in this spot.
The Dolphins enter the week -5000 to win the AFC East, +275 to win the AFC and +700 to win the Super Bowl. Which, if any of these, is the most appealing to you?
Fulghum: The +700 price to win the Super Bowl is the most appealing to me. I believe Miami has a higher probability of beating the 49ers (the best team in the NFL, in my opinion) than any other team in the league. Miami’s explosive offense and improved defense are the closest thing we have in this league to the super team in San Francisco.
Walder: +700 to win the Super Bowl. Despite what your uncle will tell you at Christmas: Offense wins championships, and Miami has been the second-best offense in the NFL this season, only behind the 49ers. Plus, the defense could be starting to jell (the results are there but the competition has been weak, so it’s tough to tell). And, to top it all off, they have a solid shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Packers (-6, 36.5) at Giants. Are you buying into Jordan Love‘s recent improvement, and how are you betting this game?
Fulghum: This game smells like a stay away for me. I do believe that Love is showing tangible and real improvement, but this isn’t the best spot. The Giants are coming off a bye at home and the Packers may be without their most talented WR Christian Watson (hamstring). Again, I believe what Love is showing us is real, but I’m hesitant to lay that large number on the road against an opponent coming off a bye. I’ll pass.
Schatz: I’m not too concerned with the Giants’ bye because they are the worst team in the league this year by DVOA. Add in that offense is more predictive than defense and the difference between these two offenses is far bigger than the difference between their defenses. Both of those favor the Packers, by the way. I have no problem betting Packers -6.
Walder: I am buying it, yes. Over the last five weeks Love’s QBR has jumped to a 75, fueled by two key factors: a dramatic reduction in turnover rate and accuracy improvements demonstrated by better adjusted completion percentages and completion percentage over expectation. Turnovers can be fluky, but the accuracy measures are, to me, a sign worth paying attention to. I’ll lay the points and take Packers -6.
What’s your favorite prop bet for Monday’s contests?
Fulghum: Tyreek Hill OVER 105.5 receiving yards. This is a ludicrously high number, but are you really going to bet against it? I didn’t think so. Tyreek is averaging 123.4 receiving yards per game this season. He’s eclipsed this mark in 7 of the 12 games he’s played. Tennessee has absolutely no one who can check him on their defense.
Schatz: I’m joining Tyler for Tyreek Hill over 105.5 receiving yards. The Titans secondary is terrible this year. I have a new version of receiving DVOA based on routes run. No. 1 in the NFL? Tyreek Hill. No. 32 against WR1s? The Tennessee Titans. Dead last against all outside wide receiver routes? Also the Tennessee Titans. Everything is set up for Hill to have a monster game. The only thing that could stop him would be the Dolphins taking too big a lead too early and shutting him down.
Moody: Jaylen Waddle OVER 66.5 receiving yards. There’s a lot of defensive attention on Hill, which helps Waddle. The trend should continue, and that bodes well for Waddle against a Titans secondary that allows 7.1 yards per pass attempt, seventh highest in the league. This season, he has averaged 7.5 targets and 67.5 receiving yards per game. Waddle could easily surpass those per game averages.
Is there anything else you’re playing Monday?
Schatz: The New York Giants rank 27th covering WR1s and allow them 87 receiving yards per game. With Christian Watson out for the Packers, that puts Romeo Doubs in the spotlight. I can’t believe Doubs’ prop is only at 40.5 yards! The Packers are going to throw on the Giants, and Doubs will likely be the top target so I like Romeo Doubs over 40.5 receiving yards.
Moody: Jayden Reed over 40.5 receiving yards. Reed has been a consistent contributor to the Packers’ passing game this season, putting up an average of 5.3 targets and 42.8 receiving yards per game. In each of the last four games, Reed has at least five targets, and he has also accumulated 180 receiving yards. Watson has already been ruled out for this game, so more targets should be available to him. In the last three games, the Giants have allowed 279.3 passing yards per game, the second most in the league. Working from the slot, Reed should be able to feast against New York.
Moody: Jordan Love over 228.5 passing yards, over 1.5 passing touchdowns. Love has settled comfortably into the starting quarterback position for the Packers, delivering phenomenal performances in the last four games. With an average of 286.5 passing yards, a 64% completion rate, and two or more touchdowns in each game, Love has established a strong connection with his receiving playmakers. The upcoming matchup against the young and inexperienced Giants secondary provides a favorable matchup for the Packers on Monday night.