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A well-rested yet desperate Bills team will leave everything on the Arrowhead field as they try to remain relevant in the AFC playoff conversation while the Chiefs look to avoid suffering consecutive defeats for the first time since weeks two and three of the 2021 season.
NFL Week 14 Bills vs. Chiefs odds preview
There’s some good news for a Bills camp in dire need of some positivity. First, the Bills are well-rested after their bye week, and the Chiefs endured an underwhelming outing in Green Bay last week, suffering a third defeat in their previous five.
Second, Isiah Pacheco is not available after suffering a shoulder injury. That news could severely hamper the Chiefs’ chances of winning their fifth home game of the season, as it will let the Bills’ 20th-ranked rush defense off the hook, at least partially.
Pacheco isn’t the only notable absence, with Donovan Smith, Bryan Cook, and Drue Tranquill also unavailable.
However, those warm and fuzzy feelings are countered by the Bills’ woeful 1-4 road record and their 0-6 mark when the opposition scores at least 22 points, which has occurred in three of their previous four.
In addition, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs losing two in a row is as rare as a Kansas City winter without snow. Mahomes is 16-3 after a defeat, including a run of 10 straight wins.
Backing the Chiefs was the recommended play at the start of the week. However, a lot has since changed on the Chiefs’ personnel front. Losing Pacheco and Tranquill to injury should have a massive impact on how this contest plays out.
The Chiefs’ personnel issues and the Bills’ extended recovery time and heightened desperation should lead to a pivotal Buffalo triumph.
NFL Week 14 Bills vs. Chiefs best game bet: Josh Allen to throw no interceptions (-114 at DraftKings)
This prop bet is plus-money for several reasons, a few of which are glaring and obvious. Allen has thrown at least one pick in eight straight contests. And while that staggering statistic provides ample reason to bet the over, a few key factors point to the contrary.
Allen must be at his best for the Bills to have any chance of beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead, which should place heightened importance on securing the football. That won’t change his perpetually aggressive nature altogether, but it should make him think twice about throwing needle-in-the-haystack passes.
Plus, the Chiefs have only six picks thus far, the NFL’s joint-second-fewest.
NFL Week 14 Bills vs. Chiefs best game bet: James Cook over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 or better)
James Cook has endured a more up-and-down season than a bobbing boat in a Category-5 hurricane. While Cook, like the rest of his teammates, has found consistency particularly elusive, he will face a middling 16th-ranked rush defense that is without Tranquill.
Cook rushed for more than 47 yards in two of the previous three games and seven of 12 overall.
The Bills are 0-4 when rushing for less than 100 yards this season, placing the impetus squarely on establishing a ground game early and often. Plus, the Chiefs are susceptible to play action, as evidenced in Green Bay last week. A solid run game will make the play action more productive and threatening.
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