Home » Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds & Prediction – Miami Open Men’s Singles Final

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds & Prediction – Miami Open Men’s Singles Final

Miami, Florida, US; Sinner vs Medvedev

Mar 31, 2023; Miami, Florida, US; Jannik Sinner (ITA) reacts after winning a point against Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) (not pictured) in a men’s singles semifinal on day twelve on the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

  • Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will meet in their second final of the year in Miami Sunday
  • Medvedev holds a dominant 5-0 advantage in the head-to-head
  • The odds on this one are nearly dead even; we break it down and find some value

Jannik Sinner spoiled Carlos Alcaraz’s quest for the rare Sunshine Double with an entertaining victory Saturday night in the Miami Open semifinals. Now, he will aim to finish the job by defeating former No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in Sunday’s Miami Open final (1 p.m. EDT). Read on for an analysis of Sinner vs Medvedev.

 Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[10] Jannik Sinner (ITA) +0.5 (-118) -108 O 22.5 (-118)
[4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) -0.5 (-112) -112 U 22.5 (-112)

The odds are nearly dead even; Sinner stands at -108 odds to win, while Medvedev is at -112.  in the Miami Open odds. The spread is +0.5 for Sinner and -0.5 for Medvedev and the match total is set at 22.5 games.

Sinner vs Medvedev odds as of April 1 are at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Another Classic

Had Alcaraz finished off Sinner in two sets, as he well should have done Saturday night, their head-to-head would have stood at 4-2 and their emerging rivalry still at the blossoming stage.

But Sinner, 21, had other plans. He defeated Alcaraz 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-2 in a brilliant effort to reach the Miami Open final for the second time in three years – by far his best results on the ATP Tour.  Notably, all but one of his seven career titles (Washington in 2021) have come at ATP 250-level tournaments.

In a new twist to their duels, the spindlier Sinner was the stronger physically; it was Alcaraz who had some issues with cramping on a very humid night and was visibly diminished as the match went on.

Sinner, however, has clearly been putting in the time in the gym, even if he did also have his moments in the match.

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Medvedev Outlasts Khachanov

In Saturday’s first semifinal, Medvedev got past countryman and friend Karen Khachanov 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-3 in a relatively speedy 2h17 to advance.

Medvedev had 13 aces and was 14-for-18 at the net. The official stats have Khachanov at a crazy 53 winners and 11 unforced errors – and Medvedev still beat him.

It was his third straight win over his fellow 6-6 giant, but his toughest.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Head-to-Head

21 (Aug. 16, 2001) Age 27 (Feb. 11, 1996)
San Candido, Italy Birthplace Moscow, Russia
6-2 Height 6-6
7 Career ATP Singles Titles 18
No. 9 (Nov. 1, 2021) Career-Best Ranking No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)
No. 11 Current Ranking No. 5
$7,532,832 Career Prize Money $28,611,469
21-4 2022 Won/Loss Record 29-3
0 ATP Head-to-Head Wins 5

This will be the second Sinner vs Medvedev final of the season; the first came in Rotterdam in February when Medvedev lost the first set but came back to win.

That Rotterdam win was the first of three consecutive tournament titles for Medvedev this winter; his 19-match win streak was ended by Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final.

Head-to-Head Dominant for Medvedev

This will be the first time Medvedev and Sinner have met anywhere other than on a quick indoor hard court.

And the Russian is 5-0 against Sinner on that surface, with three sets lost in those five victories.

Sinner vs Medvedev Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2023 Rotterdam (F) Indoor Hard 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 Medvedev
2022 Vienna (QF) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-2 Medvedev
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-0, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (8) Medvedev
2021 Marseille (QF) Indoor Hard 6-2, 6-4 Medvedev
2020 Marseille (R16) Indoor Hard 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 Medvedev

While Miami is outdoors, it’s a faster hard court than average. And beyond the heat and humidity, a speed that clearly suits Medvedev to a tee.

Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction

It’s not that you can throw Medvedev’s 5-0 edge on the head-to-head out the window. But clearly, most think it’s less telling than it has been in the past, given the dead-even odds for this Sinner vs Medvedev showdown.

Why? Perhaps because of the level Sinner has demonstrated during the tournament. But the dynamics of the matchup remain; Sinner is pretty much a straight-ahead baseliner. And Medvedev’s court position and defence tends to his opponents into trying to pull the trigger too soon.

Sinner did come to the net 25 times against Alcaraz, which is a positive sign as he’ll need those skills to pull this off. He’ll also have to avoid a letdown after the emotions and effort of the win over Alcaraz.

It’s a coin flip, but we think Medvedev isn’t ready to besmirch his perfect record against Sinner. Go for the highest “total games” odds you see fit.

Sinner vs Medvedev Picks: Medvedev in Three Sets (+330).


Stephanie Myles

Sports Writer