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NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 13

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NFL Picks: Best Player Props For Week 13

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Player Anytime Touchdowns

Zack Moss -105 (DraftKings)

Moss is -150 on some sites and has even better odds to score a touchdown than Derrick Henry in some places. Moss has been excellent this season when given the opportunity, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scoring six touchdowns. He should get at least 20 touches in this matchup and the Titans are only league-average against opposing running backs, ranking 14th in the league. He has a two-touchdown game this season and that is currently at +650 on DraftKings (only +333 on other sites).

Jaylen Waddle +135 (FanDuel)

This game has a healthy over/under of 49.5 and the Dolphins are favored by 9.5 points despite being on the road. Washington ranks 31st against opposing wide receivers and while Tyreek Hill is the obvious play here, he’s going to be at negative odds no matter where you look (-140 on FanDuel). Waddle only has three touchdowns on the season but is averaging 7.5 targets per game. Another positive working in Waddle’s favor is he’s likely the healthiest he’s been all season heading into this matchup.

Deebo Samuel +175, George Kittle +175, Brandon Aiyuk +180 (FanDuel)

Ok, hear me out on this one. It’s easy to write every week and talk about Christian McCaffrey, who is almost always at least -200 for an anytime touchdown (and would be very profitable if you bet him every game this season). However, the Eagles are fantastic against opposing running backs (first in the league), but terrible in pass coverage against tight ends (25th) and wide receivers (32nd). I like Deebo the best here (touchdowns in two of his last three games, both rushing) if you’re only looking to take one of these players here. 

Player Props

Desmond Ridder Under 174.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

This is my favorite prop of the week as I think there’s a chance Ridder gets benched at some point during this game. The Jets are seventh against opposing quarterbacks and have been much better at home than on the road this season. Ridder had to leave a game a few weeks back because of a concussion, which can come into play here as well. 

Tyjae Spears Over 21.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings)

This is a very contrarian pick considering Spears hasn’t gone over this mark in any of his last four games. However, this is a very good home matchup against the Colts (27th against opposing running backs) and Spears should see some positive correction after only getting a season-low two carries last week. Derrick Henry‘s over/under for rushing yards is only 61.5 so it seems like he might get less work while Spears sees a small uptick.

Puka Nacua Over 53.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)

I shopped the receiving line for both Cooper Kupp and Nacua around and everywhere Kupp is 54.5, Nacua is 53.5. It’s interesting that Nacua has at least seven targets in every game this season and players like A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen do not (Amon-Ra St. Brown does). The Browns defense isn’t as good on the road and I think the presence of Kupp doesn’t necessarily hurt Nacua, taking attention away from him. Look for the rookie to hit the over here as he’s done in eight of 11 games this season.