NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
We’re starting to see NFL regular season win totals popping up everywhere, which means it’s time to start betting on some football again. Of course, betting on the 2023 NFL Draft or the XFL are viable options, but getting some action in on an actual NFL season hits different. With that said, let’s take a look at some regular season win totals that you’ll want to lock in over the next couple of weeks. Offseason moves can directly impact the way we bet on these markets, so it’s never a bad idea to squeeze out some value beforehand.
Atlanta Falcons – Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
The Falcons are constantly floated as a potential Lamar Jackson team, so that’s something you should know before backing Atlanta’s regular season under. However, this team is going to have a hard time winning eight games if it can’t bring in the 2019 NFL MVP.
As of this moment, Desmond Ridder is slated to be Atlanta’s starting quarterback. Ridder is a big, athletic signal caller, but he looked out of place in four starts for the Falcons last year. Perhaps he’ll make some small improvements heading into Year 2, but he’ll likely be one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in 2023. And the team isn’t talented enough around him to get over that.
The Falcons ran the ball rather well in 2022, but they were just 13th in the NFL in offensive DVOA. That’s not good enough to make up for a defense that was the third worst in football when it came to defensive DVOA.
Atlanta will ultimately end up adding talent to this roster, but the Falcons overachieved in 2022. And a regression in 2023 seems imminent.
Chicago Bears – Over 7.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
The Bears made a huge move in dealing the first pick to the Carolina Panthers. In doing so, Chicago added D.J. Moore to a group of pass catchers that suddenly looks pretty good. With Moore, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet and Chase Claypool, the Bears now have proven NFL talent surrounding Justin Fields.
Fields should make a nice leap in his third season in the pros, especially considering offensive coordinator Luke Getsy really got a feel for how to use him last year. The Bears also have more cap space than any team in the league. Combining that with all the draft picks they have, they should be able to address the offensive line.
With Chicago’s offense likely to look a whole lot better next season, it’s hard to imagine the Bears not winning at least eight games. The Green Bay Packers are about to deal Aaron Rodgers, so the days of the NFC North running through Lambeau Field should be over — especially considering the Minnesota Vikings won the division last year. That means Chicago will have a chance to pick up some more wins in the division next season.
The Bears also have home games against the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals. It isn’t out of the question that Chicago will win at least three of those games. That doesn’t leave much work for them to do before hitting the eight-win mark.
Cleveland Browns – Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)
We briefly mentioned Jackson earlier, but we should note that the Baltimore Ravens have genuinely been a bad football team without him under center. And if the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t playing like 10-win teams this season, that opens an opportunity for the Browns to take a leap.
Last year, Cleveland dealt with the off-field drama that came with trading for Deshaun Watson. But things should be a lot quieter heading into the 2023 season, and Watson should be better after having knocked off the rust towards the end of 2022. If he is a bit sharper come Week 1, this offense has the potential to be special. Cleveland added Elijah Moore to a group of weapons that already featured Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones. And Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in football, giving this offense no real weaknesses.
If Cleveland’s defense can perform at a league-average level in 2023, the Browns should win 10 games rather easily. It doesn’t hurt that they also happen to play a very manageable schedule.
New York Jets – Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins (-130)
The Jets are a quarterback away from being a legitimate player in the AFC, and it seems like it’s only a matter of time before they add Rodgers. Rodgers might not be the quarterback he used to be, but he still threw for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions last year. And he’ll have a much better team around him in New York, where Garrett Wilson is on the verge of being a superstar. The Jets also brought in Allen Lazard, one of Rodgers’ favorite weapons from Green Bay. And the team will be running an offense that Rodgers loves, as his former offensive coordinator with the Packers, Nathaniel Hackett, is now the offensive coordinator for the Jets.
Assuming the Jets continue to get better on the defensive side of the ball, there really isn’t much stopping this team from winning 10 or 11 games. Last year, New York was fifth in the league in defensive DVOA, but the team has the capacity to add more pieces to that unit. That’ll only make the Jets stronger.
A lot of people are quick to throw the Brett Favre comparison out there for Rodgers and the Jets, but it should probably be noted that New York was off to an 8-3 start in 2008. Favre then suffered an injury that completely derailed the team, but it’s hard to say that was a failure. Rodgers also happens to have a lot more left in the tank than Favre did at that point. And I think anybody that bets the Jets win total this year would sign up for an 8-3 start.