ACC basketball takes the stage on Saturday with the start of conference play. In a high-profile matchup, the No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC opener for both teams. UNC hosts the matchup at Dean E. Smith Center, with the Tar Heels bringing a 6-1 overall record. FSU is 4-2 this season, headlined by a solid win over Colorado.
Tipoff is at 2 p.m. ET in Chapel Hill. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Tar Heels as 13-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 158.5 in the latest Florida State vs. North Carolina odds. Before entering any North Carolina vs. Florida State picks, you’ll want to see the predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 4 of the 2023-24 season on an 94-61 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It is also off to an 8-2 roll on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.
- North Carolina vs. Florida State spread: UNC -13
- North Carolina vs. Florida State over/under: 158.5 points
- North Carolina vs. Florida State money line: UNC -811, FSU +550
- FSU: The Seminoles are 4-2 against the spread this season
- UNC: The Tar Heels are 4-3 against the spread this season
- North Carolina vs. Florida State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Florida State can cover
Florida State is led by havoc creation from its defense. The Seminoles are forcing a turnover on more than 22% of possessions this season, ranking near the top of the nation. Florida State has a stellar 13.5% steal rate that is in the top 15 of the country, and opponents are also shooting only 25.6% from 3-point range against the Seminoles. The Seminoles are also blocking more than 11% of shots, using tremendous length and athleticism in the process.
On the offensive side, Florida State is led by senior guard Darin Green Jr., who is leading the team with 14.5 points per game. Green Jr. is also shooting 38.1% from 3-point range and coming off a 21-point showing against Georgia. FSU is shooting 52.9% from 2-point range and 34.8% from 3-point range this season, and the Seminoles are averaging 15.7 assists per game. North Carolina also struggles to create turnovers, with below-average marks in steal rate (7.4%) and turnover creation rate (17.6%) this season. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why North Carolina can cover
The Tar Heels are coming off an incredibly impressive performance against Tennessee. North Carolina scored 100 points in that game, marking only the second time Tennessee has allowed 100 points in a game in more than 15 years. North Carolina shot 43% from 3-point range in that contest, creating 38 free throw attempts and producing more offensive rebounds (12) than turnovers (nine). Overall, the Tar Heels are in the top 15 of the country with 87.4 points per game, and North Carolina is one of the most effective teams in the nation at the free throw line. North Carolina is in the top eight of the country with 28.4 free throw attempts per game, and the Tar Heels are shooting 76.9% from the line.
The Tar Heels are also in the top 25 of the country with only a 13.9% turnover rate, furthering the team’s advantage in the overall possession battle. North Carolina is grabbing 34.1% of available offensive rebounds, and the Tar Heels are also shooting 38% from 3-point range. Florida State has free throw prevention issues on defense, yielding 27.3 attempts per game, and opponents are shooting 52.2% from 2-point range against the Seminoles. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make UNC vs. Florida State picks
The model has simulated FSU vs. North Carolina 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins North Carolina vs. FSU, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 94-61 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.