The NBA night cap treats us to a Western Conference clash between the Nuggets and Kings. Fresh off a win vs. the Lakers, will the Nuggets have enough left in the tank to take on a rested Kings team? Find out what our NBA picks say below!
We get an awesome Western Conference showdown tonight as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will visit Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings.
The Nuggets will be playing the second half of a back-to-back after taking out LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers last night.
So, the Kings enter tonight’s game with a rest advantage and are slight home favorites in this matchup. Are the NBA odds undervaluing the defending champs here?
I break down this Western Conference clash and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Kings.
Nuggets vs Kings odds
Nuggets vs Kings predictions
The Denver Nuggets come into tonight’s matchup playing, well, like a team that won the NBA Finals last season.
Led by Nikola Jokic, the leader when it comes to NBA MVP odds, the Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 games and are now tied for the top spot in the Western Conference. They now rank eighth in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating. Simply put, they look like a team that is prepared to defend its title.
Meanwhile, rest might be the only edge the Sacramento Kings have tonight. The Kings come into this one having lost two in a row, which includes an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Pistons as 13.5-point home favorites on Wednesday night.
The Kings seem to have lost some of the spark that made their offense so electric a season ago. This year they rank a middling 14th in offensive rating.
Sacramento also has a high reliance on the 3-ball this season. The Kings take and make the third most threes in the NBA per game. However, they rank just 17th in 3-point shooting percentage and the matchup against the Nuggets probably won’t help that.
The Nuggets do an excellent job of defending the perimeter. They allow the second-fewest attempts and made threes per game while ranking 10th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
While the Kings’ defense isn’t the wasteland it used to be, it still isn’t set up to deal with a team like the Nuggets. Sacramento ranks 18th in defensive rating and 28th in opponent-effective field goal percentage.
Jokic will be a handful and the Nuggets depth will help them overcome the rest disadvantage in this matchup. There is value in Denver to pull out the win tonight.
My best bet: Nuggets moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
Nuggets vs Kings same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 points
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 assists
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Part of the reason I like the Nuggets to get the win tonight is because Nikola Jokic has dominated the matchup against Domantas Sabonis recently.
Jokic has put up 36 or more points in three of his last four matchups against Sabonis. He’s also averaging 11.8 rebounds and 9.5 rebounds in those four games, but let’s look at his points total. It’s sitting at 27.5. The Joker is averaging 26.3 points per game this season and has gone Over this number in five of his last eight games overall. With the matchup vs. Sabonis let’s add him to go Over 27.5 points again.
Let’s round this same-game parlay out with a plus-money assists prop. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope didn’t play last game but is trending towards suiting up tonight. KCP isn’t known as much of a playmaker, but his assists prop is too low tonight, sitting at 1.5. He averages 2.3 assists per game and has had two or more dimes in four of his last five games. The Kings rank 22nd in opponent assists per game. Take the Over.
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Nuggets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
The Kings opened this Western Conference matchup as 1-point home chalk and have seen the early money with the line moving to Kings -2.5 as of Friday afternoon.
I already broke down why I like the Nuggets but there are a few things at work here. For starters, it’s the rest advantage for the Kings. On top of that, the Kings got the better of the Nuggets when they last met in Sacramento in early December.
The Kings won that meeting 123-117 as 3.5-point home favorites. Both teams were playing the second half of a back-to-back in that one and Sacramento was unconscious from beyond the arc, going 16-34 from 3-point range. Something I’m not sure is sustainable in this matchup.
The Nuggets are also just playing much better basketball at the moment. Over the last 15 games, Denver ranks 10th in net rating while Sacramento is 19th.
When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 233.5 and early bettors have jumped on the Under moving the number down to 231.5. The previous meeting closed with a total of 234 and the game ended at 240.
That movement is respecting an underrated Nuggets defense that matches up well against the Kings. Mix that with the fact the Nuggets play at the second slowest pace in the NBA and it’s no surprise they are one of the best Under bets in the Association at 18-33-1 O/U.
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Nuggets vs Kings betting trend to know
The Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games for -37.05 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Kings.
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Nuggets vs Kings game info
|Arena, City, State/Province
|Friday, February 9, 2024
|7:00 p.m. ET
|Altitude, NBC Sports California
Nuggets vs Kings latest injuries
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