Although George Kittle was an afterthought in the NFC Championship game, we’re expecting the 49ers start tight end to shine on Sunday against the Chiefs. Find out more as Josh Inglis dishes out his George Kittle spotlight picks for Super Bowl 58.
George Kittle lost a lot of people’s money after just two catches in the NFC title game. Regardless, he played nearly every snap on offense and his Super Bowl odds have dipped substantially this week and opened at a nine-week low.
With the indoor track boosting passing and efficiency as well as an officiating crew that throws fewer flags, Kittle is in line to have a bigger role this week. Even if the volume isn’t there, a big play or two is very probable for the tight end who led his position in yards per catch.
George Kittle Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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George Kittle Super Bowl prop pick
Longest reception Over 20.5 yards (-112)
With everyone healthy in the San Francisco 49ers offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed which is a problem when trying to predict volume for George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. Each guy has the potential to hit the century mark in the receiving game, but they all eat into each other’s shares.
One thing that’s more consistent and bankable is the big-play ability of these pass-catchers, especially Kittle, who’s 15.9 yards per catch led all tight ends by a big margin.
Kittle’s receiving prop has fallen to 46.5 yards compared to a closing number of 61.5 vs. Detroit in the NFC title game. The Lions’ secondary was heavily priced into that number, but his Super Bowl total vs. the Kansas City Chiefs is the lowest since Week 11 vs. the Bucs.
This decreased total impacts all of his secondary markets and the one I’m targeting is his longest reception of 20.5 yards — a number that was 23.5 vs. Detroit.
That 3-yard drop is massive in this market and the tight end has gone Over in seven of his last nine games. That includes the Lions game where he proved he can hit this Over even in low-volume games.
THE BLITZ is projecting 60 yards for Kittle so his Over 46.5 yards looks good as well but I prefer this Over 20.5 for longest reception at -112 at FanDuel.
The man is just a long-reception machine. Over his last 12 games, he has long completions of 28, 32, 18, 58, 35, 44, 32, 11, 24, 66, 34, and 28 yards. He can beat coverage for long gains or rack up the YAC as he averaged 7.4 yards after the catch which ranked third at the position among TEs with at least 20 catches.
Kittle is also a very aggressive tight end and has been known to draw a few OPIs in his time. He drew one in the last Super Bowl meeting that was coincidentally officiated by Bill Vinovich. He’s in the crew again for Super Bowl LVIII.
As I wrote in my referee analysis, Vinovich and his crew have thrown flags at well under the league average for 10+ seasons. This will not be his full crew, but I see both teams’ pass-catchers having a slight edge in not drawing offensive penalties as each offense is very aggressive in terms of contact and running rub routes.
Considering his hit rate, the indoor setting, the officiating, the discounted number, and the projections from THE BLITZ, this longest reception prop for Kittle is my favorite play of the Super Bowl.
Prop: Longest reception Over 20.5 yards (-112 at FanDuel)
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George Kittle Super Bowl same-game parlay
I would love to throw out a +1,500 banger here but it’s tough without being able to add longest-play markets. I also wanted to add a Kittle TD but I feel he’s more of the fourth option in terms of red-zone looks. An Aiyuk TD puts this around +750 and that’s about as big as I would take this.
Kittle’s discount on yardage is wild considering it was 60.5 yards last week and he can still hit this Over with low volume. I’ve added Isiah Pacheco‘s rushing yards Over as a KC positive game script would turn this into a much easier SGP than +235. The Niners rush defense has been awful of late and KC can get big yards rushing to the outside vs. this defense.
If you’re looking for a big payout, I’d rather hit Kittle’s alternative longest reception markets where a 40+ yard reception is paying around +700. He’s cashed that in three of his last 10 games.
Not intended for use in MA.
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