Home » Texas Valero Open Bets: 2023 PGA TOUR Golf Betting Picks

Texas Valero Open Bets: 2023 PGA TOUR Golf Betting Picks

The only thing standing between us and Augusta is the 2023 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. I’ve let my personal gripes be known about my feelings towards this event and course, but those can all quickly become bygones if the card produces an outright winner and a little extra bankroll for 2023’s first major next week. Let’s get to my final Valero Texas Open bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Valero Texas Open Invitational bets. 

For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Valero Texas Open preview


TPC San Antonio’s best defense is the wind, and it appears it will be blowing throughout the week at the Valero Texas Open. That means a heightened importance on approach and short game, similar to what we just saw go rewarded at last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship. I followed that tournament much closer than any sane human being ever should thanks to the Matt Wallace outright sweat, and I’m going back to many of the same players who looked strong in Punta Cana last week.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for Valero Texas Open bets.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below for Valero Texas Open bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.


Rickie Fowler

My Bet: +2400

Best Odds Still Available: 

The year is 2023 and I am starting my card with the player with the consensus second-shortest odds in this field… Rickie Fowler? Yes, life has come at us quickly in 2023 with the resurgence of players like Rose, Day, and Fowler, but assessing the talent around him at the top of the board this week, I think anything north of 20-1 is a fair number for Rickie.

The swing changes have finally paid dividend in 2023, as Fowler has just one missed cut and five top-15 finishes this season, including a current streak of five consecutive top-31 finishes. In lesser form, Fowler has recorded a pair of T17 finishes over three career Valero appearances. He needs a win to qualify for The Masters, and is the only “elite” talent in this field who does not carry tune-up concerns to San Antonio.

Nick Taylor

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available: 

This is the first time in my life I’ve felt compelled to bet Nick Taylor, but the two-time PGA TOUR winner’s form has grown too strong to ignore at this point. Taylor has already recorded three top-10 finishes over eight starts in 2023. He showed great poise going mano-y-mano with Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open, and although he settled for a runner up finish then, few others in the 50-1+ odds range present the same upside to contend in a Designated event.

Taylor is gaining across all four SG categories over his last five events, with a skillset that is best suited for courses like TPC San Antonio, where accurate ball striking and reliable short game are at a premium. He ranks No. 10 in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, which is a good omen considering 2022 Valero Texas Open champion JJ Spaun ranked exactly the same entering this tournament last year.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Brendon Todd seems to always bring his best stuff with him to Texas, as two of his best results of the 2022 season came in the Lone Star state between the Valero Texas Open (T8) and Charles Schwab Challenge (T3). His lack of driving distance won’t hurt him on this firm and tight layout, as he’s proven with finishes of T8, T30, and T6 over his last four Valero appearances. Already piling up three top-10 finishes this season, Todd’s game continues to trend up leading into this favorable course set up.

Matt Wallace

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

There is a fallacy when it comes to golf outright betting in which the winner of the previous week’s event becomes a taboo bet in his next immediate start. That often comes with the pretense that you are buying high on the recency bias from the market, but I don’t see that being the case in this instance with Wallace. Even if we assume he stayed an extra night in Punta Cana to celebrate his victory at Corales, a business trip to San Antonio still awaits with plenty left to prove, still on the outside looking in at both The Masters and European Ryder Cup team.

Prior to his Corales win, Wallace’s best career PGA TOUR finish was his T3 at the 2021 Valero Texas Open. I see Corales Golf Club as a strong comp course to TPC San Antonio, given the similar characteristics of long par-5s, high winds, and slow greens. He won three times in the same season on the DP World Tour in 2018, so if he’s to become a multi-winner on the PGA TOUR this season, I’d say this event is his best opportunity to do so.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

If not for a mysterious and undisclosed withdrawal from his previously scheduled appearance at the Valspar Championship, Aaron Rai would be a full-fledged conviction bet to play well at the Valero Texas Open. Instead, we’ll settle to call it a high confidence play.

Rai ranks No. 2 in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds, No. 3 in Good Drives Gained, and No. 9 in SG: Ball Striking. He posted his best finish of 2023 in his latest start at THE PLAYERS where he putted level to field average. The flat stick appears to be the deciding factor as to whether he’ll contend week in and week out on the PGA TOUR. In 2022, Rai was statistically the most average putter on TOUR, so he seems due to regress back to the mean soon. The last time Rai gained strokes putting was his last trip to Texas, where he finished T7 at the 2022 Houston Open.

Akshay Bhatia

My Bet: +15000

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It’s very early into his career, but Akshay has already proven he’s a top-tier prospect in the golf world, and far too talented to slip this far down the board against this field. Over six starts in 2023, Akshay has already posted three top-25 finishes, all coming on windy courses between the Bermuda Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Corales Puntacana Championship. I’m not looking too closely at the model considering his best performances have come without the aid of ShotLink data, so this is purely an upside play at these long odds.

Ryan Moore

My Bet: +40000

Best Odds Still Available:

I had room for one more on the card, and feeling inspired by one Moore winning two weeks again, I said “give me Moore” – Ryan that is. Ryan Moore is elite among this field in Driving Accuracy (No. 10) and SG: APP (No.15), which is already enough reason to take a chance at 400-1 odds. He showed some life with a T7 five starts ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and is No. 4 in Course History at TPC San Antonio with four top-20s and no missed cuts over five career appearances.


Aaron Rai

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Aaron Rai is currently the leading candidate to replace the vacancy left behind by Sebastian Munoz on the weekly FRL card. He’s still in our good graces after a successful FRL cash at the Farmers Open, and gets an ideal set up for his game this week at fair 70-1 odds.

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available: 

I gave Straka a long thought as an outright play this week given his spike upside with both his irons and putting. The recent SG: ARG metrics, especially at TPC San Antonio, ultimately scared me away. But, irons and putting are the two most importance pieces to establishing the low round of the day, so I like this market for Straka.

Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +9500

Best Odds Still Available: 

Kizzire has a great history in the state of Texas, including a T9 finish at this event in 2021 where he posted the low round of the day on Sunday. He gets a favorable morning tee time this week, and can lean on his streaky irons and Bermuda putting to go low at TPC San Antonio.

Kevin Chappell

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Last year I deployed the Chappell Hill parlay with Kevin Chappell to win the Valero Texas Open the same weekend as the UNC Tarheels played the Final Four. It was a good sweat made possible by Chappell’s low round of the day on Friday, so we’ll chase the same vibes again this year on the 2017 Valero champ.

Brent Grant

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

I don’t know a ton about Brent Grant’s game this early into his rookie season, but I do know he can catch a birdie streak like few others on the PGA TOUR already. Grant chopped first round leader honors with Aaron Rai at the Farmers Open earlier this year, and shot the second lowest round of the day on Sunday at the Corales Puntacana Championship the last time he teed it up.


Top-20 Finish: Si Woo Kim

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available: 

It’s weird to associate Si Woo Kim with consistency, but maybe the equipment change to the broomstick putter has actually bred a steadier floor for the South Korean in 2023. Consistency is something I always look for in the top-20 market, and Kim brings it with five top-27 finishes over his last seven starts. He looked great in Austin last week, despite the early exit, and has finished top-25 in four of his last five trips to TPC San Antonio.

Top-40 Finish: Brent Grant

My Bet: +260

Best Odds Still Available: 

Brent Grant is my favorite value play on DraftKings this week, which usually correlates to some perceived top-40 value for me. The rookie looks to have caught his stride in this stretch of the season four top-40 finishes over his last five starts, including a season-best T8 at last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship.

Top-20 Finish: Sam Stevens

My Bet: +450

Best Odds Still Available: +450

I’m probably putting more stock behind the performances at last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship than most others will, but Stevens impressed there with a T3 showing. That was his third top-15 finish of his rookie season already, and the Oklahoma State grad should feel some comfort returning to this part of the country.

Top-20 Finish: Ryan Moore

My Bet: +900

Best Odds Still Available: 

Ryan Moore has never missed a cut at the Valero Texas Open in five career appearances and has finished inside the top 20 at an 80% clip over that span. His irons and putting are still on par with the form he’s brought to this event in he past, so I’ll chase the course history narrative at these long odds.


My Pick: Si Woo Kim

Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, and Si Woo Kim expect to be the three most popularly chosen golfers in OAD this week. There is room to get cute with players like Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, or Brendon Todd, but I’m going to eat the chalk with Si Woo, who I believe has the safest path to a top-10 finish. He’s always excelled on layouts that reward keeping the ball in the fairway, and the irons continue to look in top form after gaining over 7 strokes on approach in his last start at THE PLAYERS.

If not Kim, I would also consider Fowler, Wallace, or Rai as OAD picks.


That’ll do it for this week’s Valero Texas Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own Valero bets, and be on the lookout for an overload of Masters content over the next week! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.


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