WTA Miami has produced incredible tennis and the fun continues on Thursday.
I’ve found value on two of Thursday’s matches, featuring Hibino vs Trevisan and Rybakina vs Kalinskaya.
Read on for my WTA Miami picks for March 23.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Miami Odds, Picks
Nao Hibino (-132) vs Martina Trevisan (+112)
5 p.m. ET
Nao Hibino qualified for Miami without dropping a set and beat Danka Kovinic 6-3, 6-3 in the first round. Hibino won 60% of her service points and was broken three times. However, on return she won an impressive 58% of her return points, including 62% on Kovinic’s second serve.
She is now a solid 10-8 on the year, with all matches on hard. For her career, Hibino has a strong 249-188 hard-court record. She doesn’t do anything spectacular on the court, but Hibino is very solid from both wings. She’s quick and anticipates well, getting good depth on her groundstrokes too. But, Hibino doesn’t have a ton of power, both from her serve and from the baseline.
Martina Trevisan snapped a five-match losing streak in Indian Wells against Madison Brengle, but fell in her next match 4-6, 6-3, 4-6 versus Karolina Muchova. Trevisan won 60% of her service points against Muchova, facing 13 break points and getting broken three times. Trevisan broke three times on return, winning 51% of her second-serve returns, although she won just 26% of her first-serve returns.
Trevisan has played all matches this season on hard courts and compiled a 3-8 record. As a professional, the Italian is just 52-63 on hard. Trevisan has a heavy lefty forehand that she uses to dictate play. However, she can be rushed on her forehand, her backhand is a weakness and while the Indian Wells conditions (clay-like) suited her game, Miami conditions are less favorable.
Hibino has been strong from the baseline, staying solid from both wings and hitting with force when given the opportunity. She should extend rallies against Trevisan, keeping the ball on the Italian’s backhand.
Her defensive and counterpunching skills will neutralize Trevisan when she’s trying to dictate with her forehand.
Hibino is clearly comfortable in the conditions, while Trevisan struggles to implement her game on hard courts and doesn’t move as well. Look for Hibino to out-maneuver Trevisan in baseline exchanges.
Pick: Hibino ML (-132 via FanDuel)
Elena Rybakina (-500) vs Anna Kalinskaya (+350)
7:30 p.m. ET
Elena Rybakina continued her excellent start to the 2023 season, beating Aryna Sabalenka 7-6(11) 6-4. While Rybakina only won 58% of her service points, she was only broken twice during the match. She had a good returning performance, winning 45% of her return points, generating 10 break points and breaking on three occasions.
Rybakina has improved her record to an incredible 16-4 this year (all on hard), which includes making the Australian Open final. The Kazakh has an impressive 171-81 record on hard as a professional.
Her success is often based on her big first serve. In 2023, Rybakina is top-six in aces, percentage of first-serve points won, service points won and service games won. She plays an aggressive style behind her serve, punishing groundstrokes whenever possible.
But, Rybakina is not the best mover and her rally tolerance can sometimes dip.
Anna Kalinskaya started off Miami strong, defeating Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 6-4, 6-2. Kalinskaya won 78% of her first-serve points and only faced two break points, getting broken once. On return, the Russian won 41% of her first-serve returns and broke four times.
She is now 8-8 in 2023, with all matches on hard courts. The Russian now has a 143-84 career-record on hard courts, showcasing her competence on the surface.
Kalinskaya hits her spots on serve and tries to attack from the baseline when given the opportunity. Her groundstrokes cut through the court, although she has stretches where she loses her rally tolerance.
Rybakina is playing excellent tennis, but 5.5 games is too many. Kalinskaya served well against Jimenez Kasintseva, which is encouraging given that the Kazakh’s return is not a strength.
In addition, Kalinskaya’s aggressive attitude from the baseline shouldn’t allow Rybakina to dictate play and the Russian should be able to exploit Rybakina’s mediocre movement.
Rybakina also played a lot of tennis in Indian Wells and is traveling across the United States into humid conditions that will test her physicality.
This match should be closer than anticipated.
Pick: Kalinskaya +5.5 games (-140 via PointsBet)
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